How to Win in NFL DFS: Essential Strategies for 2024

Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) contests offer a wide range of strategies and approaches. While there is no obvious single way to win, there are plenty of ways to lose. Luckily, there are some simple general concepts that can aid in building out successful DFS lineups. 

Let's take a look at three essential strategies you'll want to use in order to find success in NFL DFS this season.

Stacking: Correlation means upside

With DFS roster construction, you are typically trying to manage three separate “levers” in a lineup: projection, correlation and ownership. 

While we have direct ways of assessing projections for both median expectation and ownership in a contest, the correlation piece is generally more nuanced. We can measure it mathematically through correlation coefficients between positions — and, to a lesser extent, players — but including it in projection models is a lot more challenging.

What we do know is that stacking to any extent increases the ceiling of a lineup when you do so utilizing players or positions that have a positive correlation. This added correlation varies, and we can increase the variance of lineups by leveraging it.

In NFL DFS, this means mainly focusing on stacking quarterbacks with their top receiving options.

Nov 13, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) celebrates the touchdown of running back quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The general stacking combination is QB/WR or QB/TE. Intuitively, this makes sense; the most common way for a receiver to accrue fantasy points is by catching the ball and racking up yards and touchdowns, and the QB is nearly always the one throwing the ball, thus garnering the same yardage and touchdowns. If a QB throws for 300 yards and two touchdowns, it’s likely that at least one, if not two, of his receiving options ended up with 100-plus yards and a TD.

This correlation goes both ways, of course. If the QB ends up throwing for just 185 yards and no touchdowns, his receiving options more than likely posted a dud. This is why we say that leveraging correlation increases variance, since it affects both the ceiling and floor of a lineup.

In larger-field GPPs — contests with the most entries and largest prize pools — you can look to maximize correlation by stacking with multiple players from one or both teams. If your aim is to increase variance and reach the highest ceiling possible when a shootout breaks out, you’ll want to stack as many players as you can so you capture all that upside. Going with stacks of QB/WR/WR (or QB/WR/TE) or even adding in opposing receiving options (oWR or oTE) for an over-stack of QB/WR/WR/oWR can set you up for massive-variance payoffs throughout the season.

Value: Cheap stars = accessible studs

Another vital piece of DFS comes from the concept of value. If you have never played DFS, the key roster construction function is the salary cap, which varies from site to site and gives you a certain amount of money to spend on players. 

For instance, on DraftKings, your salary cap is $50,000 and the players are priced from $2,500 all the way to $10,000 or more. You can think of the pricing and salary structure here as the current value assessment of a player based on the site’s algorithms. While the site’s projections are good, there are frequently players over- or under-priced for the given slate conditions.

One of the most important concepts in DFS is identifying which players represent strong salary relief so you can also afford to fit the expensive studs into your lineup.

Indianapolis Colts running back Zack Moss (21) rushes the ball for a touchdown Sunday, Oct. 8, 2023, during a game against the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

In NFL DFS, this value can come in many shapes and sizes and at any position, but the most common source of value is found in running backs. Without getting too deep into the weeds, NFL DFS and the assessment of value comes from volume and opportunity. While receivers have massive upside, running backs usually touch the ball more than any other skill position, thus their opportunity is the highest. This isn’t to say that cheaper receivers or QBs can’t be valuable — they certainly fit into the equation — but running backs are much more consistent.

Running back value usually comes from RBs who are either underpriced based on lackluster results or due to an injury to the starter. A back who has been touching the ball 15 to 20 times per game but averaging a low yards per carry or not finding the end zone will have a depressed price relative to one who has been running into kinder variance. On the other hand, a backup RB who gets a spot start because of an injury to a stud is going to be underpriced relative to their projected workload since they don’t have the stats to demand a high salary. Both of these are common situations in NFL DFS that represent strong value plays.

But cheap RBs are not the only source of value, and we can mathematically measure this concept pretty well with projection models. We can look at projected workloads, matchups and team totals to create projections for players and compare those to their salaries, giving us a good idea of the value they represent. Quarterbacks and receivers that are underpriced based on circumstances such as team totals and matchups that likely elevate their baseline rates are going to be necessary pieces of building competitive DFS lineups.

Leverage: Pivoting adds to win equity

One final concept to discuss is leverage — pivoting away from players who are overvalued by the field (the pool of entries in a contest) and rostering a player at a lower ownership with a similar projection. This creates something called relative value — a key metric in building win equity — and it allows you to more easily pass the rest of the entrants in a contest based on the same amount of fantasy points.

For instance, imagine you have two running backs priced at $6,000 on DraftKings. Both running backs are projected for 13.0 fantasy points and have similar game totals and offensive environments. However, one running back is a backup who is stepping into a starting role, and the other is a starter who has been unlucky regarding touchdown variance. Because of this, the backup is projected to be 30% owned in contests while the starter is projected to be 10% owned.

Considering all else is mostly equal or at least relatively similar, you can gain a significant edge over the field in terms of win equity by simply rostering the 10%-owned option rather than the 30%-owned player. This is called indirect leverage, and it is the least volatile way to gain equity over your opponents. You could feasibly build the same lineup as another person and pivot from the 30%-owned player to the 10%-owned player and have more win equity for the same overall projection.

Another form of pivoting and leverage is called direct leverage, which is more volatile but offers a more effective way to beat your opponents. Whereas indirect leverage involves rostering a player with a similar projection and salary, direct leverage is rostering a player who succeeds when the higher-owned player fails — they are negatively correlated. 

A great example of this is when one receiver on a team is projected to be highly owned while another on the same team is projected for much lower ownership. By simply pivoting to the lower-owned receiver, you can gain direct leverage over the field since the two players' ceilings eat into one another.

Leverage is a higher-level concept because of the volatility it creates in lineups, but it’s easy enough to manage if you treat it as a lever and not a switch. Creating lineups that have a single point of leverage, either indirect or direct, is typically enough to give you win equity in contests. As you learn and grow as a DFS player, you will start to understand when and where you should introduce more and less leverage, which is where real equity gains are found.

Do the work, reap the DFS rewards

Daily fantasy sports is an ever-evolving game without any concrete answers to the test. The best players in the world are constantly assessing their strategies and pushing their edges to maximize ROI. There are various ways to study them and aim to replicate their strategies, and doing so is an important part of everyone’s journey toward being a profitable DFS player.

One last tip: DFS, like all money games, is all about making a profit, not about being right. Humble yourself, forget about your favorite team and figure out how to win.

Good luck, and bring home some trophies!